Is Autocracy Winning?
Eight Geopolitical Risks to Watch in 2025
Dear Reader,
Is autocracy winning? Summarizing the geopolitical outlook for 2025 in one single phrase is audacious. For sure, the year will be marked by rivalry and unpredictability, democratic backsliding, economic turbulence, and much more. Yet the title’s question captures the defining challenge of 2025 and beyond: the struggle between democracies and autocracies to determine the rules of future global order. The answer given by the passage of time, beginning with the next twelve months, will have profound implications for global stability, governance, and businesses.
What are the key risks in the coming year? In our Agora Strategy Risk Report 2025, we provide more than a catalogue of geopolitical hazards. Drawing on insights from diplomacy, business, and academia, we identify eight overarching risks and analyze their concrete impact on business operations and strategies. This unique approach bridges the gap between geopolitical dynamics and corporate decision-making.
2025 will test our ability to navigate an increasingly fragmented world. Superpower tensions, fueled by President Donald Trump´s return to the White House, will threaten trade flows and supply chains. The growing dominance of Big Tech will spark new conflicts, as it presents both fundamental threats and innovation opportunities. Democratic norms face unprecedented pressure, whereas authoritarian regimes increase cooperation to undermine accountability and good governance. Global trade and markets will become more volatile, as economic relations are increasingly weaponized. Climate risks, intertwined with a weaponization of energy supply, will pose challenges that demand urgent responses. Finally, a new global financial crisis may be on the horizon.
So, is autocracy winning? While the outlook for 2025 may seem bleak, the ultimate answer depends on whether governments, companies, and individuals rise to meet the challenges outlined in this report. Even amid global instability, the opportunities for innovation, cooperation, and resilience are plentiful. This report is your trusted compass for 2025 to navigate the complex geopolitical realities ahead – the essential step toward building strategies for success in an unpredictable world.
Warm regards,
